Monday, September 15, 2008

Nassau GOP Losing Registered Voter Edge

We touched on this two years ago.
Via the NYTimes......

"As recently as 1998, the Republican Party had 340,333 enrolled voters — a daunting lead of nearly 100,000 over the Democratic enrollment of 240,735.
"That is no longer true. In just a decade, the Republican plurality has all but vanished and is down to several thousand voters. And Democrats predict that in the next few months — with a bump from newly registered supporters of Barack Obama — their party will eclipse the Republicans in registered voters for the first time in anyone’s memory.

“It should be by the end of this year, or the beginning of next year at the latest,” said Nassau’s Democratic elections commissioner, William T. Biamonte.

That would be a reversal of fortune for Nassau Republicans, a powerhouse in state and national politics cited in textbooks as one of the strongest party organizations in the country.
"Voter preferences here may have shifted further than official records show, because people can change their minds without switching registration.

“There are far less who say they’re Republican than the records reflect,” said Michael D. Dawidziak, a political consultant who polled 700 Long Islanders for Dowling College before the presidential conventions. About 32 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans and 33 percent as independents or in other parties, with the remaining 6 percent undecided or not answering.
"But with an aging membership and hierarchy, “there’s been no new blood, no turnover in leadership,” said Desmond Ryan, a Republican lobbyist. Similarly, Mr. Dawidziak, the consultant, said, “The Republicans have been very noncompetitive and lackadaisical about recruiting young people and having a big tent.”

Mr. Mondello, the Nassau chairman, did not respond to requests for comment.

Senator Skelos said he remained optimistic for Republicans. “Politics is cyclical,” he said, “and I think that it will turn around,” especially with the right candidates. He noted that even overwhelmingly Democratic New York City elected Republicans as its last two mayors — Rudolph W. Giuliani and Michael R. Bloomberg, who is now unaffiliated."

Note to Dean-O: Rudy ran as an anti-gun, pro-choice, liberal republican. He was endorsed by the Liberal Party. And on top of that, he ran against David Dinkins who made a mess of the city.
And Bloomberg? A Democrat turned republican (to get elected w/o a primary fight) turned independent. Blomberg is also anti-gun, pro-choice and pretty darned liberal.
Skelos gets an "F" for Current Events.

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