Monday, November 03, 2008

What Spooked Kemp Hannon?

On Sunday, a new Siena poll gives Kemp Hannon a commanding lead of 56% - 30% over Democrat Kristen McElroy with 15% undecided. This seems to be a lead McElroy can't break put of.
I am not dismissing the numbers in the poll but if these are the real numbers, why did Hannon have to go on the air with negative tv ads?
Hannon could have continued on with positive mailings and tv ads never mentioning McElroy at all. But he did mention her. He went after her. A candidate just doesn't go negative with a lead like the Siena poll is showing.
What numbers are Hannon seeing that we don't know about.
The poll was conducted between October 29th and November 1st and this is the first time Siena polled this race.
On October 28th, Hannon went on the air with the anti-McElroy ads.
McElory did not respond until October 31st.
Did the Hannon ad have an affect on the polling?
Like I said, I'm not dismissing the Siena poll but an answer to the question "why did Hannon go negative?" might be more of a window into the race.

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